The perfect storm in transportation

The North Front Range Metropolitan Planning Organization will hold a regional transportation conference at the Larimer County Fairgrounds, The Ranch, on March 26 with Gov. Bill Ritter and senators Wayne Allard and Ken Salazar planning to participate. Residents, who register and attend, will be asked their thoughts on regional transportation plans.

I hope as many people as possible attend. For most of us, transportation means roads and cars and not buses and trains. Hopefully, those perceptions will begin to change. In my opinion there are a number of factors that will soon be creating a "perfect storm" of issues that impact automobile and mass transit decisions. Good planning now can prevent serious issues later.

Consider the following bad news for travel by automobile: The U.S. Department of Energy forecasts that gasoline prices are expected to stay over $3 for two years. Beyond that, a Governmental Accounting Office study acknowledges that eventually world production of oil will fall behind demand potentially leading to economic disruption. The only question is timing, and the GAO acknowledges that it could happen soon.

The Colorado Front Range is now in an ozone non-attainment situation, and the Environmental Protection Agency is planning to make the standard even more demanding. Already discussions are under way in government circles such as the Colorado Air Quality Control Commission about how to find and clean up high-pollution-emitting automobiles. Growing concern with greenhouse gases and global warming could lead to even more regulation and restriction.

All local and state projections of growing roadway travel point to badly congested roads during the next 30 years. Yet, the needed funding, in the billions of new tax dollars outlined by The Governor's Blue Ribbon Panel on Transportation, seems unlikely given the competition from education and health care.

Even where road funds are available, the cost of road construction materials has followed the price of fuel and has risen 43 percent in the past five years, according to the American Road and Transportation Builders Association.

On top of all that, a study by the Rose Foundation in Denver predicts a crushing need for transit assistance when all of the baby boomers start losing their ability to drive.

Meanwhile, on a more positive note, the view of mass transit is changing. In Denver, the Fast Tracks system is spawning a development boom around the light rail stations, creating village-like communities along the lines. A new national survey published by the National Association of Realtors shows overwhelming public support for transit services.

This is not to say that we should give up our cars and not build more roads. Automobiles have brought great convenience to our lives and will always be with us. But to be able to continue to fully enjoy our cars when we need them, we must have a new paradigm for transportation. We must develop bus and rail alternatives for our travel so that our economy and our environment both stay healthy.

Hopefully, the conference on March 26 will start a discussion in that direction. For those interested in attending, reservations are required. The number to call is (800) 332-0950, Ext. 4, or go to www.nfrsummit.com.

Gary Thomas is the executive director of the SAINT Volunteer Transportation agency in Loveland and Fort Collins.